2
Half To Reload
6yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 87
Fort Erie · Race 3 - Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
6/4
Win Prob
94%
Place Prob
71%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength11%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-06-30 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-21 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-09-29 | Fort Erie | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-09-16 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-09-08 | Fort Erie | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 6
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength75%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/07/2025 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 83% | +0.20 |
| 12/08/2025 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 26/08/2025 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 83% | +0.01 |
| 08/09/2025 | 6th | 10/3 | 82% | 17% | -0.66 |
| 16/09/2025 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 29/09/2025 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 43% | -0.28 |
| 21/10/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 89% | +0.15 |
| 30/06/2026 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 67% | -0.24 |
| 12/07/2026 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 80% | -0.12 |