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3

Rye's My Guy

5yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 76

Fort Erie · Race 3 - Claiming · 6f

#2

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

5%

Place Prob

17%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength47%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 4.1)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Fort Erie 15/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 83 · 5f 124 · below its mark15/09/2025 · OR 83 par15/09C8OR 83C8 @ Fort Erie 07/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 81 · 6f Slo 124 · below its mark07/10/2025 · OR 81 parC8 @ Fort Erie 20/10/2025 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 81 · 6f Slo 124 · below its mark20/10/2025 · OR 81 par20/10C8OR 81C7 @ Woodbine 07/11/2025 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 82 · 6f Fas 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark07/11/2025 · OR 82 parC7 @ Woodbine 14/12/2025 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 81 · 6f 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark14/12/2025 · OR 81 par14/12C7OR 81C7 @ Woodbine 26/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 82 · 5f110y 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark26/04/2026 · OR 82 parC8 @ Fort Erie 31/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 79 · 6f 124 · below its mark31/05/2026 · OR 79 par31/05C8OR 79C8 @ Fort Erie 29/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 70 · 6f 124 · beat its mark29/06/2026 · OR 70 parC7 @ Fort Erie 12/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 75 · 6f Fas 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/07/2026 · OR 75 par12/07C7OR 75projClass-projected finish: 1st of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-12Fort Erie?1st0th+1
2026-06-29Fort Erie?1st1st0
2026-05-31Fort Erie?3rd3rd0
2026-04-26Woodbine?8th7th+1
2025-12-14Woodbine?2nd1st+1
2025-11-07Woodbine?7th6th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/097/1131/0512/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/09/20252nd6/168%80%+0.12
07/10/20253rd8/158%71%+0.14
20/10/20258th10/382%0%-0.82
07/11/20257th33/10%14%+0.14
14/12/20252nd33/10%89%+0.89
26/04/20268th12/137%0%-0.37
31/05/20263rd8/158%67%+0.09
29/06/20261st10/147%100%+0.53
12/07/20261st5/287%100%+0.13