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4

Stirling Castle

4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 81

Fort Erie · Race 3 - Claiming · 6f

#4

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#4

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength37%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 3.6)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC7 @ Woodbine 20/07/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR - · 6f 120 · HIGHER CLASS20/07C7C7 @ Woodbine 10/08/2025 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 83 · 6f 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark10/08/2025 · OR 83 parC7 @ Woodbine 01/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 78 · 6f Fas 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark01/09/2025 · OR 78 par1/09C7OR 78C9 @ Woodbine 19/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 76 · 5f110y Fas 120 · below its mark19/09/2025 · OR 76 parC7 @ Woodbine 23/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 76 · 6f110y Fas 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/10/2025 · OR 76 par23/10C7OR 76C8 @ Woodbine 21/11/2025 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 76 · 6f110y Fas 123 · below its mark21/11/2025 · OR 76 parC8 @ Woodbine 14/12/2025 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 80 · 6f 121 · below its mark14/12/2025 · OR 80 par14/12C8OR 80C5 @ Mountaineer 11/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 80 · 6f Slo 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/05/2026 · OR 80 parC8 @ Fort Erie 20/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 82 · 6f110y 122 · below its mark20/07/2026 · OR 82 par20/07C8OR 82projClass-projected finish: 4th of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-20Fort Erie?2nd2nd0
2026-05-11Mountaineer?1st-2th+3
2025-12-14Woodbine?6th6th0
2025-11-21Woodbine?7th7th0
2025-10-23Woodbine?1st0th+1
2025-09-19Woodbine?2nd3rd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/0719/0914/1220/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 6
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▲
Strength93%

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/07/20253rd9/153%67%+0.14
10/08/20257th15/261%14%-0.46
01/09/20253rd7/282%71%-0.10
19/09/20252nd7/491%83%-0.07
23/10/20251st6/168%100%+0.32
21/11/20257th7/282%25%-0.57
14/12/20256th20/10%38%+0.38
11/05/20261st2/189%100%+0.11
20/07/20262nd3/184%80%-0.04