6
Candid Candace
5yo Mare · 8-8 · OR 72
Fort Erie · Race 4 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-21 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-15 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-11-07 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-10-25 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-10-04 | Woodbine | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 7
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength77%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/07/2025 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 43% | -0.41 |
| 21/08/2025 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 89% | +0.03 |
| 12/09/2025 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 04/10/2025 | 9th | 9/1 | 53% | 33% | -0.19 |
| 25/10/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 71% | +0.24 |
| 07/11/2025 | 2nd | 4/6 | 96% | 83% | -0.13 |
| 02/05/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 17% | -0.62 |
| 15/05/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 21/06/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 75% | -0.09 |