5
Iron Pyrite
5yo Mare · 8-8 · OR 65
Fort Erie · Race 4 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength14%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.6 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-29 | Fort Erie | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-05-09 | Woodbine | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-03-26 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-01-07 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 10th | 11th | −1 |
| 2025-12-13 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 7
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▲
Strength77%
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10/2025 | 11th | 33/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 16/10/2025 | 10th | 8/1 | 58% | 10% | -0.48 |
| 14/11/2025 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 13/12/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 20% | -0.27 |
| 07/01/2026 | 10th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 26/03/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 09/05/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 29/06/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 12/07/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |