1
Knotty And Nice
6yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 71
Fort Erie · Race 4 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m
#2
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength57%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-06 | Fort Erie | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-10-25 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2025-09-30 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
| 2025-07-22 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
| 2025-07-07 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
| 2025-06-23 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 7
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▬
Strength77%
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 2nd of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10/2024 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 22/11/2024 | 7th | 10/3 | 82% | 14% | -0.68 |
| 13/12/2024 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 83% | +0.23 |
| 23/06/2025 | 2nd | 11/10 | 94% | 83% | -0.11 |
| 07/07/2025 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 86% | -0.04 |
| 22/07/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 86% | +0.07 |
| 30/09/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 25/10/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 06/07/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |