2
Little Iris
4yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 62
Fort Erie · Race 4 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m
#1
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
94%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength16%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-21 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-11 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-04-21 | Will Rogers Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-07 | Will Rogers Downs | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-03-23 | Will Rogers Downs | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-02-02 | Will Rogers Downs | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength88%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/10/2025 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 75% | +0.38 |
| 14/11/2025 | 6th | 11/4 | 86% | 29% | -0.57 |
| 13/01/2026 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 17% | -0.65 |
| 02/02/2026 | 5th | 11/8 | 93% | 43% | -0.50 |
| 23/03/2026 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 29% | -0.53 |
| 07/04/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 80% | +0.01 |
| 21/04/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 11/05/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 86% | -0.01 |
| 21/06/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |