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4

Silent Patsy

5yo Mare · 8-8 · OR 72

Fort Erie · Race 4 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m

#5

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength47%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 3.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Woodbine 08/11/2024 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 70 · 6f110y 123 · below its mark08/11/2024 · OR 70 par8/11C8OR 70C8 @ Woodbine 05/12/2024 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 74 · 1m110y Fas 121 · below its mark05/12/2024 · OR 74 parC5 @ Fort Erie 23/06/2025 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 66 · 5f Fas 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark23/06/2025 · OR 66 par23/06C5OR 66C5 @ Fort Erie 07/07/2025 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 54 · 7f Fm 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/07/2025 · OR 54 parC8 @ Woodbine 31/07/2025 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 59 · 6f110y Fm 121 · below its mark31/07/2025 · OR 59 par31/07C8OR 59C8 @ Woodbine 22/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 65 · 6f110y Fas 121 · below its mark22/08/2025 · OR 65 parC5 @ Fort Erie 30/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 67 · 7f Fm 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/09/2025 · OR 67 par30/09C5OR 67C5 @ Fort Erie 13/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 70 · 7f Gd 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/10/2025 · OR 70 parC5 @ Fort Erie 06/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 72 · 5f110y 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/07/2026 · OR 72 par6/07C5OR 72projClass-projected finish: 1st of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-06Fort Erie?5th3rd+2
2025-10-13Fort Erie?1st-1th+2
2025-09-30Fort Erie?3rd1st+2
2025-08-22Woodbine?3rd4th−1
2025-07-31Woodbine?5th6th−1
2025-07-07Fort Erie?6th4th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today8/117/0730/096/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength48%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
08/11/20242nd9/276%88%+0.11
05/12/20246th16/116%0%-0.16
23/06/20255th10/147%0%-0.47
07/07/20256th20/10%29%+0.29
31/07/20255th25/10%50%+0.50
22/08/20253rd10/147%71%+0.24
30/09/20253rd9/488%75%-0.13
13/10/20251st10/147%100%+0.53
06/07/20265th20/10%43%+0.43