IvyArcIvyArc
5

Let's Go Liam

4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 75

Fort Erie · Race 5 - Allowance · 6f 110y

#6

Rank

Odds

13/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 4.7)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC9 @ Woodbine 23/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 77 · 1m Fm 120 · below its mark23/08/2025 · OR 77 par23/08C9OR 77C9 @ Woodbine 06/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 76 · 1m110y Fas 120 · beat its mark06/09/2025 · OR 76 parC5 @ Mahoning Valley 12/01/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 74 · 6f Slo 124 · beat its mark12/01/2026 · OR 74 par12/01C5OR 74C5 @ Mahoning Valley 05/02/2026 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 75 · 1m Slo 124 · below its mark05/02/2026 · OR 75 parC8 @ Mahoning Valley 11/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 74 · 6f Slo 124 · below its mark11/03/2026 · OR 74 par11/03C8OR 74C5 @ Mahoning Valley 27/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 76 · 6f 124 · beat its mark27/03/2026 · OR 76 parC8 @ Woodbine 03/05/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 80 · 7f Fas 123 · below its mark03/05/2026 · OR 80 par3/05C8OR 80C5 @ Fort Erie 30/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 78 · 7f Fm 122 · below its mark30/06/2026 · OR 78 parC8 @ Fort Erie 21/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 77 · 5f Fm 120 · below its mark21/07/2026 · OR 77 par21/07C8OR 77projClass-projected finish: 5th of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-21Fort Erie?4th7th−3
2026-06-30Fort Erie?8th8th0
2026-05-03Woodbine?10th13th−3
2026-03-27Mahoning Valley?3rd3rd0
2026-03-11Mahoning Valley?2nd5th−3
2026-02-05Mahoning Valley?5th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/085/023/0521/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 6
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength1%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/08/20253rd11/271%78%+0.07
06/09/20251st3/184%100%+0.16
12/01/20265th10/147%43%-0.05
05/02/20265th15/261%0%-0.61
11/03/20262nd9/276%80%+0.04
27/03/20263rd11/271%60%-0.11
03/05/202610th4/179%10%-0.69
30/06/20268th9/276%0%-0.76
21/07/20264th13/266%40%-0.26