4
Speedy Connection
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 70
Fort Erie · Race 5 - Allowance · 6f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
2/5
Win Prob
98%
Place Prob
84%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-29 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-07 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 6th | −4 |
| 2026-05-16 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2025-12-13 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2025-11-21 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength76%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/10/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 21/11/2025 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 80% | +0.27 |
| 13/12/2025 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 63% | -0.03 |
| 16/05/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 50% | -0.34 |
| 07/06/2026 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 88% | -0.05 |
| 29/06/2026 | 2nd | 8/11 | 96% | 86% | -0.10 |
| 12/07/2026 | 1st | 2/5 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |