6
Z Hub
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 47
Fort Erie · Race 5 - Allowance · 6f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲3
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 9.2 /10 (raw 6.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.9
Today:
Class gap: -2.9
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | Fort Erie | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | 5th | −4 |
| 2025-11-01 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 10th | −4 |
| 2025-09-07 | Woodbine | ? | 11th | 15th | −4 |
| 2025-08-10 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 9th | −4 |
| 2025-07-25 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 11th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 6
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength59%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/05/2025 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 40% | +0.14 |
| 30/05/2025 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 25/07/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 10/08/2025 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 07/09/2025 | 11th | 40/1 | 0% | 23% | +0.23 |
| 01/11/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 07/07/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 20/07/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 25% | -0.22 |