2
Ashcar Nellie
5yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 76
Fort Erie · Race 6 - Starter Optional Claiming · 5f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
83%
Place Prob
67%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 2.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-29 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-10-13 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-09-22 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-09-08 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-08-18 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength87%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 1st of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07/2025 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 75% | +0.12 |
| 08/07/2025 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 05/08/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 71% | +0.24 |
| 18/08/2025 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 80% | -0.07 |
| 08/09/2025 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 22/09/2025 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 83% | -0.10 |
| 13/10/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 75% | -0.09 |
| 29/06/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 12/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 80% | -0.07 |