6
Because
7yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 79
Fort Erie · Race 6 - Starter Optional Claiming · 5f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
17%
Place Prob
30%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength31%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-19 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-14 | Will Rogers Downs | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-03-24 | Will Rogers Downs | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-03-03 | Will Rogers Downs | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 6
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength64%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/11/2025 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 20/01/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 16/02/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 03/03/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 71% | +0.03 |
| 24/03/2026 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 50% | -0.39 |
| 14/04/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 83% | +0.07 |
| 19/05/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 57% | +0.10 |
| 02/06/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 43% | +0.06 |
| 12/07/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |