Leziate
4yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 69
Fort Erie · Race 6 - Starter Optional Claiming · 5f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.1 /10 (raw 4.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | Fort Erie | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-07-06 | Fort Erie | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-06-21 | Fort Erie | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-06-12 | Woodbine | ? | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2026-04-18 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2025-10-25 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/07/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 27/07/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 29/09/2025 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 25/10/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 18/04/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 12/06/2026 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 21/06/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 25% | +0.09 |
| 06/07/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 57% | -0.28 |
| 20/07/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 33% | -0.40 |