5
Sicilian Grandma
6yo Mare · 8-8 · OR 76
Fort Erie · Race 6 - Starter Optional Claiming · 5f 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength2%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | Fort Erie | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-27 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-24 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-03-12 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-02-13 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2025-12-26 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 6
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength70%
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 4th of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/08/2025 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 40% | -0.48 |
| 27/08/2025 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 13/09/2025 | 3rd | 8/11 | 96% | 50% | -0.46 |
| 26/12/2025 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 71% | +0.56 |
| 13/02/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 12/03/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 24/04/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 75% | +0.04 |
| 27/05/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 57% | -0.24 |
| 12/07/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 40% | -0.28 |