4
Coach Caley
5yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 62
Fort Erie · Race 7 - Claiming · 7f
#1
Rank
Odds
9/4
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
91%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-06 | Mountaineer | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-09-25 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-08-28 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-07-27 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength83%
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 1st of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/04/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 29% | -0.08 |
| 10/06/2025 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 71% | +0.14 |
| 15/07/2025 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 86% | +0.20 |
| 27/07/2025 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 28/08/2025 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 25/09/2025 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 06/10/2025 | 8th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 07/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 80% | +0.27 |
| 20/07/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |