9
Nicole's Song
7yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 60
Fort Erie · Race 7 - Claiming · 7f
#4
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength30%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-30 | Fort Erie | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-10-21 | Fort Erie | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-10-07 | Fort Erie | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-09-23 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 9
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength84%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/08/2025 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 18/08/2025 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 20% | +0.04 |
| 09/09/2025 | 2nd | 33/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 23/09/2025 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 83% | +0.23 |
| 07/10/2025 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 21/10/2025 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |
| 30/06/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 12/07/2026 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 21/07/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 75% | -0.14 |