5
Sigiriya
5yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 52
Fort Erie · Race 7 - Claiming · 7f
#3
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 | Fort Erie | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-10-21 | Fort Erie | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-10-07 | Fort Erie | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-09-22 | Fort Erie | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-08-26 | Fort Erie | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-08-11 | Fort Erie | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 9
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength16%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07/2025 | 2nd | 10/11 | 95% | 83% | -0.12 |
| 14/07/2025 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 22/07/2025 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 17% | -0.44 |
| 11/08/2025 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 50% | -0.13 |
| 26/08/2025 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 22/09/2025 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |
| 07/10/2025 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 20% | -0.54 |
| 21/10/2025 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 21/07/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |