Role Play

3yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 84

Gulfstream · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

32%

Place Prob

28%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▬

Strength33%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.3)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C7.1

Today:

Class gap: +0.4

Higher-class runs: 3

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-07-11	Gulfstream	?	2nd	2nd	0	8.0
2026-06-12	Gulfstream	?	9th	8th	+1	2.2
2026-05-15	Gulfstream	?	8th	5th	+3	5.0
2026-04-23	Gulfstream	?	1st	2nd	−1	7.8
2026-03-26	Gulfstream	?	3rd	4th	−1	5.8
2026-02-26	Gulfstream	?	5th	4th	+1	6.2

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish1st of 9

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▬

Strength52%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 9.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
23/11/2025	4th	7/2	82%	70%	-0.12
31/01/2026	2nd	11/4	86%	90%	+0.04
26/02/2026	5th	6/4	92%	33%	-0.59
26/03/2026	3rd	8/15	97%	50%	-0.47
23/04/2026	1st	6/1	68%	100%	+0.32
15/05/2026	8th	6/1	68%	0%	-0.68
12/06/2026	9th	9/1	53%	0%	-0.53
11/07/2026	2nd	3/1	84%	88%	+0.03