2
Hard Talk
3yo Colt · 8-10 · OR 71
Gulfstream · Race 3 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength26%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.2
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-14 | Gulfstream | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-29 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-03-06 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-11 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-01-23 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 6
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength41%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/11/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 78% | +0.30 |
| 13/12/2025 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 71% | +0.19 |
| 02/01/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 23/01/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 83% | +0.36 |
| 11/02/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 06/03/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 60% | -0.08 |
| 29/03/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 02/05/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 14/06/2026 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |