4
I'm Sam
3yo Colt · 8-8 · OR 89
Gulfstream · Race 3 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
6/4
Win Prob
6%
Place Prob
17%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength15%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-01 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-22 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-03-14 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-02-19 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 6
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength73%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/09/2025 | 1st | 4/5 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 08/11/2025 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 17/01/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 50% | -0.36 |
| 19/02/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 86% | +0.49 |
| 14/03/2026 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 22/03/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 01/05/2026 | 2nd | 10/11 | 95% | 67% | -0.29 |
| 19/06/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 80% | -0.11 |
| 12/07/2026 | 3rd | 6/4 | 92% | 50% | -0.42 |