Mish
9yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 95
Gulfstream · Race 4 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
15/8
Win Prob
99%
Place Prob
88%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 6 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 2.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-24 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-04-11 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-02-22 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-01-22 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-01-03 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/02/2025 | 2nd | 1/1 | 95% | 75% | -0.20 |
| 27/03/2025 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 67% | -0.18 |
| 14/11/2025 | 5th | 2/1 | 89% | 0% | -0.89 |
| 03/01/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 73% | -0.14 |
| 22/01/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 22/02/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 11/04/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 0% | -0.86 |
| 24/05/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 50% | -0.37 |
| 18/07/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |