5
Secret Empire
5yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 98
Gulfstream · Race 4 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength38%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.1 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.2
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-07 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-12 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-01-23 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-12-27 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-12-12 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2025-11-19 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 7
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength73%
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 2nd of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08/2025 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 80% | +0.17 |
| 29/08/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 26/10/2025 | 6th | 5/2 | 87% | 17% | -0.70 |
| 19/11/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 12/12/2025 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 44% | -0.35 |
| 27/12/2025 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 83% | -0.10 |
| 23/01/2026 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 88% | -0.05 |
| 12/02/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 07/03/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 75% | -0.09 |