Thirty Pound Test
5yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 86
Gulfstream · Race 4 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 2.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-27 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-05-24 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-01-31 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2025-11-23 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-11-07 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2024-05-30 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/03/2024 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 71% | -0.08 |
| 04/04/2024 | 3rd | 1/2 | 97% | 71% | -0.26 |
| 30/05/2024 | 1st | 4/11 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 07/11/2025 | 2nd | 8/15 | 97% | 86% | -0.11 |
| 23/11/2025 | 1st | 1/8 | 99% | 100% | +0.01 |
| 31/01/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 24/05/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 27/06/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |