4
Navy Cross
6yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 94
Gulfstream · Race 5 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
36%
Place Prob
35%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength2%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-13 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-16 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-29 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-05 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-01-17 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07/2025 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 80% | -0.07 |
| 12/10/2025 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |
| 08/11/2025 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 67% | -0.21 |
| 17/01/2026 | 4th | 6/4 | 92% | 73% | -0.19 |
| 05/03/2026 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 33% | -0.54 |
| 29/03/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 16/04/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 20/06/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 60% | -0.19 |
| 13/07/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 89% | +0.10 |