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2

Laila Bella Girl

5yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 78

Gulfstream · Race 6 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 5f

#8

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength29%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Gulfstream 02/05/2025 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 75 · 5f Fas 125 · below its mark02/05/2025 · OR 75 par2/05C6OR 75C7 @ Gulfstream 17/05/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 78 · 5f Fm 125 · beat its mark17/05/2025 · OR 78 parC6 @ Gulfstream 12/06/2025 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 82 · 5f Fm 123 · below its mark12/06/2025 · OR 82 par12/06C6OR 82C5 @ Colonial Downs 18/07/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 86 · 5f110y Fm 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/07/2025 · OR 86 parC5 @ Colonial Downs 03/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 87 · 5f110y Fm 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark03/09/2025 · OR 87 par3/09C5OR 87C6 @ Gulfstream 05/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 83 · 5f 121 · beat its mark05/10/2025 · OR 83 parC6 @ Gulfstream 08/11/2025 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 89 · 6f Fas 121 · below its mark08/11/2025 · OR 89 par8/11C6OR 89C6 @ Gulfstream 18/12/2025 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 84 · 5f 120 · below its mark18/12/2025 · OR 84 parC5 @ Gulfstream 03/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 75 · 5f Fm 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/07/2026 · OR 75 par3/07C5OR 75projClass-projected finish: 6th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-03Gulfstream?1st0th+1
2025-12-18Gulfstream?7th7th0
2025-11-08Gulfstream?9th9th0
2025-10-05Gulfstream?2nd2nd0
2025-09-03Colonial Downs?5th4th+1
2025-07-18Colonial Downs?2nd1st+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/0518/078/113/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 8
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength55%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 8. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/05/20257th9/153%14%-0.38
17/05/20251st1/195%100%+0.05
12/06/20256th8/158%29%-0.29
18/07/20252nd15/261%80%+0.19
03/09/20255th12/137%43%+0.06
05/10/20252nd16/116%83%+0.68
08/11/20259th9/153%0%-0.53
18/12/20257th9/153%0%-0.53
03/07/20261st12/137%100%+0.63