4
Softly Dreaming
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 75
Gulfstream · Race 6 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 5f
#7
Rank
Odds
15/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength6%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-12 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-09 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-04-16 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-03-26 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-02-27 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-01-29 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 8
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/01/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 44% | -0.08 |
| 27/02/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 20% | -0.06 |
| 26/03/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |
| 16/04/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 83% | +0.31 |
| 09/05/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 12/06/2026 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |