El Principito
5yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 98
Gulfstream · Race 7 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-29 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-03-06 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-02-07 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2025-12-26 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-11-28 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-08-24 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/06/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 05/07/2025 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 80% | -0.09 |
| 03/08/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 24/08/2025 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 40% | -0.46 |
| 28/11/2025 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 26/12/2025 | 3rd | 7/4 | 91% | 67% | -0.24 |
| 07/02/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 29% | -0.24 |
| 06/03/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 20% | -0.54 |
| 29/03/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |