Imprudent

3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 68

Mountaineer · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m

Rank

Odds

6/4

Win Prob

91%

Place Prob

76%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▬

Strength32%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 3.2)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C7.1

Today:

Class gap: +0.4

Higher-class runs: 3

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-07-22	Mountaineer	?	4th	4th	0	6.0
2026-06-28	Mountaineer	?	1st	-1th	+2	5.0
2026-05-31	Mountaineer	?	2nd	0th	+2	9.8
2026-05-07	Thistledown	?	3rd	1st	+2	8.8
2026-04-24	Keeneland	?	4th	5th	−1	4.8
2026-03-14	Fair Grounds	?	5th	6th	−1	3.8

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish2nd of 14

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▼

Strength51%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 14. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
14/03/2026	5th	12/1	37%	56%	+0.19
24/04/2026	4th	11/2	71%	63%	-0.09
07/05/2026	3rd	11/10	94%	0%	-0.94
31/05/2026	2nd	2/1	89%	88%	-0.02
28/06/2026	1st	9/4	88%	100%	+0.12
22/07/2026	4th	6/4	92%	40%	-0.52