4
Itza Kitty
4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 55
Mountaineer · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
11/10
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength30%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.1
Today:
Class gap: -0.6
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-31 | Charles Town | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-30 | Charles Town | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-04-03 | Charles Town | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-03-21 | Charles Town | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-02-21 | Charles Town | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-02-05 | Charles Town | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 14
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength80%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10/2025 | 4th | 6/4 | 92% | 57% | -0.35 |
| 25/10/2025 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 11/01/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 57% | +0.41 |
| 05/02/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |
| 21/02/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 21/03/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 03/04/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 60% | +0.02 |
| 30/04/2026 | 5th | 4/7 | 97% | 20% | -0.77 |
| 31/05/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |