IvyArcIvyArc
11

Mima Princess

4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 55

Mountaineer · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m

#11

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▼1
Strength82%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Mountaineer 23/07/2025 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 47 · 1m70y Fm 116 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/07/2025 · OR 47 par23/07C5OR 47C8 @ Mountaineer 02/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 49 · 5f110y 118 · below its mark02/10/2025 · OR 49 parC8 @ Mountaineer 19/11/2025 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 51 · 1m Gd 118 · below its mark19/11/2025 · OR 51 par19/11C8OR 51C8 @ Mountaineer 15/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 50 · 6f 120 · beat its mark15/04/2026 · OR 50 parC5 @ Thistledown 02/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 55 · 1m Slo 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/05/2026 · OR 55 par2/05C5OR 55C5 @ Thistledown 11/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 58 · 6f 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/05/2026 · OR 58 parC5 @ Mountaineer 26/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 54 · 6f Gd 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark26/05/2026 · OR 54 par26/05C5OR 54C8 @ Presque Isle Downs 17/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 49 · 1m70y 123 · below its mark17/06/2026 · OR 49 parC8 @ Presque Isle Downs 03/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 51 · 1m70y 123 · beat its mark03/07/2026 · OR 51 par3/07C8OR 51projClass-projected finish: 4th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-03Presque Isle Downs?2nd2nd0
2026-06-17Presque Isle Downs?4th4th0
2026-05-26Mountaineer?6th3rd+3
2026-05-11Thistledown?7th4th+3
2026-05-02Thistledown?4th1st+3
2026-04-15Mountaineer?3rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/0715/0426/053/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 14
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength35%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 12th of 14.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/07/20257th50/10%33%+0.33
02/10/20255th50/10%33%+0.33
19/11/20256th40/10%0%0.00
15/04/20263rd33/10%67%+0.67
02/05/20264th50/10%40%+0.40
11/05/20267th33/10%14%+0.14
26/05/20266th40/10%17%+0.17
17/06/20264th9/153%40%-0.13
03/07/20262nd20/10%86%+0.86