Morgan's Bluff

6yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 64

Mountaineer · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m

#13

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

#13

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▼1

Strength49%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.7

Today:

Class gap: +0.8

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-07-14	Mountaineer	?	7th	7th	0	3.0
2026-06-29	Mountaineer	?	4th	4th	0	6.0
2026-05-02	Thistledown	?	6th	3rd	+3	7.0
2026-04-15	Mountaineer	?	5th	5th	0	5.0
2026-04-08	Mahoning Valley	?	3rd	0th	+3	5.0
2026-03-19	Mahoning Valley	?	3rd	3rd	0	7.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish13th of 14

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▼

Strength39%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 13th of 14. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
30/01/2026	4th	5/1	74%	40%	-0.34
15/02/2026	8th	40/1	0%	22%	+0.22
28/02/2026	7th	33/1	0%	0%	0.00
19/03/2026	3rd	3/1	84%	67%	-0.18
08/04/2026	3rd	6/1	68%	50%	-0.18
15/04/2026	5th	6/4	92%	33%	-0.59
02/05/2026	6th	20/1	0%	0%	0.00
29/06/2026	4th	5/2	87%	50%	-0.37
14/07/2026	7th	3/1	84%	33%	-0.51