3
Button Box
11yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 85
Mountaineer · Race 2 - Starter Optional Claiming · 5f
#5
Rank
Odds
9/4
Win Prob
7%
Place Prob
12%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength16%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 2.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-02 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-09-15 | Mountaineer | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-08-10 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
| 2025-06-23 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2024-06-23 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2023-09-12 | Mountaineer | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 13
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength80%
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 4th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/06/2023 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 89% | +0.05 |
| 26/07/2023 | 2nd | 10/11 | 95% | 88% | -0.08 |
| 22/08/2023 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 33% | -0.51 |
| 12/09/2023 | 6th | 3/1 | 84% | 0% | -0.84 |
| 23/06/2024 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 23/06/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 10/08/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 15/09/2025 | 9th | 13/2 | 66% | 0% | -0.66 |
| 02/06/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |