1
Catamount
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 89
Mountaineer · Race 2 - Starter Optional Claiming · 5f
#12
Rank
Odds
13/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Ellis Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-18 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-26 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-08 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-04-08 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-06-12 | Churchill Downs | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 13
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength56%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 12th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/12/2024 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 17/02/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 21/03/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 12/06/2025 | 8th | 13/2 | 66% | 13% | -0.53 |
| 08/04/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 70% | +0.04 |
| 08/05/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 26/05/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 18/06/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 83% | +0.07 |
| 04/07/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 50% | -0.16 |