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8

Don Corleone

6yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 65

Mountaineer · Race 2 - Starter Optional Claiming · 5f

#8

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▼1
Strength54%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Finished in the top 3 in 4 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Keeneland 09/04/2025 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 82 · 6f Fas 125 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark09/04/2025 · OR 82 par9/04C6OR 82C9 @ Churchill Downs 08/05/2025 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 80 · 6f Fas 124 · below its mark08/05/2025 · OR 80 parC9 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 16/07/2025 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 68 · 5f110y Slo 124 · below its mark16/07/2025 · OR 68 par16/07C9OR 68C6 @ Thistledown 04/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 68 · 6f 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/08/2025 · OR 68 parC6 @ Thistledown 25/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 69 · 6f 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/08/2025 · OR 69 par25/08C6OR 69C6 @ Mountaineer 10/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 70 · 5f Fm 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/09/2025 · OR 70 parC5 @ Thistledown 26/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 74 · 6f 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark26/09/2025 · OR 74 par26/09C5OR 74C5 @ Mountaineer 16/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 73 · 5f110y 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/10/2025 · OR 73 parC5 @ Mountaineer 17/11/2025 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 75 · 5f110y Fas 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark17/11/2025 · OR 75 par17/11C5OR 75projClass-projected finish: 8th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2025-11-17Mountaineer?9th7th+2
2025-10-16Mountaineer?2nd0th+2
2025-09-26Thistledown?5th3rd+2
2025-09-10Mountaineer?1st0th+1
2025-08-25Thistledown?2nd1st+1
2025-08-04Thistledown?3rd2nd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/044/0826/0917/11
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 13
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength14%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 13th of 13. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/04/20256th6/168%0%-0.68
08/05/202510th4/179%0%-0.79
16/07/20253rd5/493%50%-0.43
04/08/20253rd9/153%75%+0.22
25/08/20252nd2/189%83%-0.06
10/09/20251st11/1094%100%+0.06
26/09/20255th4/179%0%-0.79
16/10/20252nd11/486%80%-0.06
17/11/20259th16/116%0%-0.16