Dropkick Murphy
6yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 86
Mountaineer · Race 2 - Starter Optional Claiming · 5f
#2
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
53%
Place Prob
34%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 4.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-09 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
| 2026-06-24 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-11 | Mountaineer | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-01-15 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2025-12-20 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2025-11-24 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/09/2025 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 67% | -0.26 |
| 26/10/2025 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 80% | +0.12 |
| 04/11/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 24/11/2025 | 1st | 4/9 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 20/12/2025 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 17% | -0.49 |
| 15/01/2026 | 6th | 3/1 | 84% | 0% | -0.84 |
| 11/05/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 24/06/2026 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 09/07/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 80% | +0.17 |