5

Hey Boots

5yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 97

Mountaineer · Race 2 - Starter Optional Claiming · 5f

#6

Rank

Odds

13/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#6

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move1
Strength43%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 4 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.7 /10 (raw 2.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Charles Town 27/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 97 · 4f110y Slo 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/11/2025 · OR 97 par27/11C6OR 97C6 @ Charles Town 15/01/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 97 · 4f110y Fas 124 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark15/01/2026 · OR 97 parC6 @ Charles Town 05/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 98 · 4f110y 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/02/2026 · OR 98 par5/02C6OR 98C6 @ Charles Town 26/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 97 · 4f110y 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark26/02/2026 · OR 97 parC6 @ Charles Town 07/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 100 · 4f110y Slo 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark07/03/2026 · OR 100 par7/03C6OR 100C6 @ Charles Town 05/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 97 · 4f110y 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark05/04/2026 · OR 97 parC6 @ Charles Town 11/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 94 · 4f110y Fas 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/04/2026 · OR 94 par11/04C6OR 94C6 @ Charles Town 10/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 100 · 4f110y 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark10/05/2026 · OR 100 parC6 @ Charles Town 28/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 101 · 4f110y Gd 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark28/06/2026 · OR 101 par28/06C6OR 101projClass-projected finish: 4th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-28Charles Town?4th3rd+1
2026-05-10Charles Town?3rd2nd+1
2026-04-11Charles Town?1st0th+1
2026-04-05Charles Town?5th4th+1
2026-03-07Charles Town?3rd2nd+1
2026-02-26Charles Town?1st0th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/1126/0211/0428/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 13
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength37%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 13. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/11/20251st1/499%100%+0.01
15/01/20262nd6/492%86%-0.06
05/02/20261st7/282%100%+0.18
26/02/20261st1/195%100%+0.05
07/03/20263rd11/486%50%-0.36
05/04/20265th6/168%0%-0.68
11/04/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
10/05/20263rd9/488%60%-0.28
28/06/20264th13/266%50%-0.16