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4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 80

Mountaineer · Race 2 - Starter Optional Claiming · 5f

#4

Rank

Odds

9/4

Win Prob

12%

Place Prob

16%

Rank

#4

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲1
Strength35%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 4.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC9 @ Turfway Park 19/03/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 58 · 6f Fas 120 · beat its mark19/03/2025 · OR 58 par19/03C9OR 58C9 @ Keeneland 13/04/2025 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 69 · 6f Fas 118 · below its mark13/04/2025 · OR 69 parC9 @ Churchill Downs 29/04/2025 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 71 · 1m Fas 118 · below its mark29/04/2025 · OR 71 par29/04C9OR 71C9 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 13/05/2025 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 69 · 6f Fas 120 · below its mark13/05/2025 · OR 69 parC9 @ Presque Isle Downs 03/06/2025 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 67 · 6f Fas 120 · below its mark03/06/2025 · OR 67 par3/06C9OR 67C6 @ Mountaineer 15/07/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 70 · 5f Fm 116 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/07/2025 · OR 70 parC6 @ Mountaineer 11/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 72 · 5f Fm 116 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/08/2025 · OR 72 par11/08C6OR 72C8 @ Mountaineer 04/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 71 · 5f Fm 121 · beat its mark04/09/2025 · OR 71 parC8 @ Mountaineer 09/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 80 · 5f Fm 120 · beat its mark09/06/2026 · OR 80 par9/06C8OR 80projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-09Mountaineer?1st2nd−1
2025-09-04Mountaineer?1st2nd−1
2025-08-11Mountaineer?1st0th+1
2025-07-15Mountaineer?2nd1st+1
2025-06-03Presque Isle Downs?5th7th−2
2025-05-13Horseshoe Indianapolis?3rd5th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/0313/0511/089/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 13
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength84%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 13. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/03/20252nd10/147%80%+0.33
13/04/20255th16/116%56%+0.40
29/04/20256th16/116%55%+0.39
13/05/20253rd2/189%60%-0.29
03/06/20255th7/282%43%-0.39
15/07/20252nd10/382%86%+0.03
11/08/20251st6/492%100%+0.08
04/09/20251st4/179%100%+0.21
09/06/20261st9/488%100%+0.12