Standard Of Proof
6yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 96
Mountaineer · Race 2 - Starter Optional Claiming · 5f
#1
Rank
Odds
15/8
Win Prob
16%
Place Prob
19%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 4.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-06-29 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-17 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
| 2026-03-07 | Turf Paradise | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-02-25 | Turf Paradise | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/01/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 71% | -0.18 |
| 27/01/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 17/02/2026 | 1st | 8/11 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 25/02/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 83% | +0.18 |
| 07/03/2026 | 5th | 13/8 | 91% | 33% | -0.58 |
| 17/05/2026 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 10/06/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 40% | -0.44 |
| 29/06/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 63% | -0.26 |
| 20/07/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 67% | -0.23 |