5
Sweet Talia
7yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 59
Mountaineer · Race 3 - Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength36%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-21 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-11-18 | Mountaineer | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-11-03 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-09-16 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 7
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▲
Strength77%
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/07/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 14/08/2025 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 43% | -0.31 |
| 03/09/2025 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 60% | -0.06 |
| 16/09/2025 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 40% | -0.18 |
| 03/11/2025 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 80% | +0.43 |
| 18/11/2025 | 6th | 10/3 | 82% | 29% | -0.54 |
| 21/04/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 20% | -0.54 |
| 02/06/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 21/07/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 83% | +0.20 |