IvyArcIvyArc
2

Michael's Well

3yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 80

Naas · TRM Ironxcell For Energy Race · 5f 205y

#2

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

59%

Place Prob

50%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Showed plenty last autumn when runner-up at this course on debut before going one better at Navan. Has had something in the way of excuses on both starts this year and remains open to improvement on juvenile promise.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Naas 12/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR - · 5f205y Yie 13112/10C8C8 @ Navan 22/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR - · 5f180y Sft 13422/10C8C0 @ Cork 04/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR - · 5f Sft 1384/04C?BHA85 @ Naas 09/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR 85 · 5f205y Gd 135 · below its mark09/05/2026 · OR 85 par9/0585OR 85projClass-projected finish: 4th of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-05-09NaasBHA858th8th0
2026-04-04Cork?6th6th0
2025-10-22Navan?1st1st0
2025-10-12Naas?2nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/1022/104/049/05
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 6
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength31%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/10/20252nd12/137%80%+0.43
22/10/20251st11/486%100%+0.14
04/04/20266th16/116%29%+0.13
09/05/20268th7/163%46%-0.17