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Tolebi

4yo Gelding · 9-13 · OR 87

Naas · TRM Ironxcell For Energy Race · 5f 205y

#6

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Maiden winner last spring for Andre Fabre before twice making the frame in listed company. Produced some creditable efforts for this yard this summer but was let down by his start when behind at Galway (8.4f, soft) 4 days ago. Back down markedly in trip but has work to do at the weights.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength16%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 8.7 /10 (raw 6.7)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC1 @ ParisLongchamp 24/04/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR - · 6f211y Ver 12524/04C1C1 @ Deauville 05/07/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR - · 5f212y GS 124C1 @ Chantilly 02/10/2025 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR - · 5f102y GS 1252/10C1C1 @ Chantilly 27/10/2025 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR - · 5f212y Ver 124BHA95 @ Curragh 28/03/2026 · Pos 12th of 14 · OR 95 · 5f Sft 135 · below its mark28/03/2026 · OR 95 par28/0395OR 95BHA92 @ Fairyhouse 12/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 92 · 7f Goo 137 · below its mark12/06/2026 · OR 92 parBHA91 @ Curragh 26/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 17 · OR 91 · 7f Gd 141 · below its mark26/06/2026 · OR 91 par26/0691OR 91BHA90 @ Fairyhouse 08/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 90 · 7f Goo 130 · below its mark08/07/2026 · OR 90 parBHA87 @ Galway 30/07/2026 · Pos 11th of 13 · OR 87 · 1m98y Yie 137 · below its mark30/07/2026 · OR 87 par30/0787OR 87projClass-projected finish: 6th of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-30GalwayBHA8711th11th0
2026-07-08FairyhouseBHA904th4th0
2026-06-26CurraghBHA919th9th0
2026-06-12FairyhouseBHA924th4th0
2026-03-28CurraghBHA9512th12th0
2025-10-27Chantilly?12th12th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today24/0427/1026/0630/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 6
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength60%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
24/04/20254th9/488%50%-0.38
05/07/20253rd6/168%71%+0.03
02/10/202511th7/163%9%-0.54
27/10/202512th40/10%0%0.00
28/03/202612th50/10%15%+0.15
12/06/20264th40/10%40%+0.40
26/06/20269th50/10%50%+0.50
08/07/20264th25/10%50%+0.50
30/07/202611th33/10%17%+0.17