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Amiata

3yo Gelding · 10-0 · OR 87

Naas · Matchbook Betting Exchange Handicap · 5f 205y

#1

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

98%

Place Prob

87%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Usually patiently ridden of late and overcame traffic issues when winning handicap over this C&D in April. Also landed 12-runner contest at the Curragh (5f) in June and he's much respected, even if he does need things to drop right.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength11%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.3
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Navan 28/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 80 · 5f Yie 133 · beat its mark28/08/2025 · OR 80 par28/08C8OR 80BHA88 @ Naas 11/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 88 · 5f205y Yie 135 · below its mark11/10/2025 · OR 88 parBHA88 @ Dundalk 14/11/2025 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR 88 · 6f Std 136 · below its mark14/11/2025 · OR 88 par14/1188OR 88BHA85 @ Dundalk 12/12/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 85 · 5f Std 136 · below its mark12/12/2025 · OR 85 parBHA82 @ Cork 04/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 82 · 5f Sft 130 · below its mark04/04/2026 · OR 82 par4/0482OR 82BHA81 @ Bellewstown 11/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 81 · 5f3y Sft 130 · below its mark11/04/2026 · OR 81 parBHA79 @ Naas 27/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 79 · 5f205y Gd 137 · beat its mark27/04/2026 · OR 79 par27/0479OR 79BHA86 @ Cork 19/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 86 · 5f Sft 134 · below its mark19/05/2026 · OR 86 parBHA83 @ Curragh 03/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 83 · 5f Goo 126 · beat its mark03/06/2026 · OR 83 par3/0683OR 83projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-03CurraghBHA831st1st0
2026-05-19CorkBHA864th4th0
2026-04-27NaasBHA791st1st0
2026-04-11BellewstownBHA815th5th0
2026-04-04CorkBHA825th5th0
2025-12-12DundalkBHA854th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/0812/1227/043/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 11
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength72%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 11.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/08/20251st4/179%100%+0.21
11/10/20255th15/261%69%+0.09
14/11/20256th5/493%58%-0.35
12/12/20254th7/163%50%-0.13
04/04/20265th6/168%43%-0.26
11/04/20265th7/163%56%-0.08
27/04/20261st5/174%100%+0.26
19/05/20264th5/174%57%-0.17
03/06/20261st7/163%100%+0.37