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10

Flaming Rib

7yo Gelding · 9-2 · OR 71

Naas · Matchbook Betting Exchange Handicap · 5f 205y

#5

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Smart performer at his best for Hugo Palmer. However, he's without a win since early 2023 and failed to build on an in-frame effort at Down Royal when 8 lengths eighth of 10 to Gotta Catch'em All over this C&D 12 days ago. Visor reached for.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 6.7 /10 (raw 6.5)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C8.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Kempton 18/12/2024 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 93 · 6f Sta 132 · beat its mark18/12/2024 · OR 93 par18/122OR 933 @ Chester 28/06/2025 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 90 · 6f17y Goo 137 · beat its mark28/06/2025 · OR 90 par2 @ Chester 03/08/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 88 · 7f1y Goo 133 · beat its mark03/08/2025 · OR 88 par3/082OR 88BHA86 @ Curragh 27/09/2025 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 86 · 7f Sft 127 · below its mark27/09/2025 · OR 86 parBHA84 @ Dundalk 21/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 84 · 7f Std 136 · below its mark21/11/2025 · OR 84 par21/1184OR 84BHA83 @ Dundalk 17/12/2025 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 83 · 7f Std 123 · below its mark17/12/2025 · OR 83 parBHA79 @ Leopardstown 04/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 79 · 7f20y Sft 131 · below its mark04/06/2026 · OR 79 par4/0679OR 79BHA78 @ Down Royal 19/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 78 · 7f Sft 138 · below its mark19/06/2026 · OR 78 parBHA75 @ Naas 22/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 75 · 5f205y Goo 135 · below its mark22/07/2026 · OR 75 par22/0775OR 75projClass-projected finish: 11th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-22NaasBHA758th8th0
2026-06-19Down RoyalBHA784th4th0
2026-06-04LeopardstownBHA795th5th0
2025-12-17DundalkBHA8310th10th0
2025-11-21DundalkBHA844th4th0
2025-09-27CurraghBHA869th9th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/1227/094/0622/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 11
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength47%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/12/20246th14/126%44%+0.18
28/06/20254th9/276%63%-0.14
03/08/20254th5/174%50%-0.24
27/09/20259th33/10%27%+0.27
21/11/20254th14/126%70%+0.44
17/12/202510th5/174%0%-0.74
04/06/20265th20/10%56%+0.56
19/06/20264th7/282%63%-0.19
22/07/20268th6/168%22%-0.46