7

Leveraging

3yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 79

Naas · Matchbook Betting Exchange Handicap · 5f 205y

#9

Rank

Odds

66/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Winner of a Dundalk maiden in December, but after 7 months off he faced a stiff task on handicap debut when last of 20 in the Scurry at the Curragh 16 days ago. Drops in grade but still has something to find.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 9.2 /10 (raw 9.2)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Curragh 14/09/2025 · Pos 10th of 16 · OR - · 6f63y Yie 12514/09C5C8 @ Curragh 27/09/2025 · Pos 9th of 16 · OR - · 6f Yie 13327/09C8C8 @ Dundalk 05/11/2025 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR - · 6f Std 1285/11C8C8 @ Dundalk 19/12/2025 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR - · 6f Std 13319/12C8BHA80 @ Curragh 18/07/2026 · Pos 20th of 20 · OR 80 · 6f63y Goo 119 · below its mark18/07/2026 · OR 80 par18/0780OR 80projClass-projected finish: 10th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-18CurraghBHA8020th20th0
2025-12-19Dundalk?1st1st0
2025-11-05Dundalk?6th6th0
2025-09-27Curragh?9th9th0
2025-09-14Curragh?10th10th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today14/0927/095/1119/1218/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 11
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength0%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
14/09/202510th100/10%40%+0.40
27/09/20259th66/10%47%+0.47
05/11/20256th8/158%50%-0.08
19/12/20251st6/168%100%+0.32
18/07/202620th66/10%0%0.00