4
Moltophino
5yo Gelding · 9-11 · OR 80
Naas · Matchbook Betting Exchange Handicap · 5f 205y
#11
Rank
Odds
22/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 9.0 /10 (raw 6.1)
Highest class: BHA69
Recent avg: C8.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Curragh | BHA83 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-06-28 | Curragh | BHA84 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Curragh | BHA85 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-09-14 | Curragh | BHA86 | 20th | 20th | 0 |
| 2025-08-28 | Navan | BHA89 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-07-25 | Cork | BHA89 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 11
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength14%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/05/2025 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 13/06/2025 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 83% | +0.36 |
| 19/07/2025 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 73% | -0.03 |
| 25/07/2025 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 73% | -0.06 |
| 28/08/2025 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 20% | -0.64 |
| 14/09/2025 | 20th | 15/2 | 61% | 14% | -0.47 |
| 23/05/2026 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 62% | +0.46 |
| 28/06/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 60% | +0.07 |
| 18/07/2026 | 9th | 22/1 | 0% | 58% | +0.58 |