IvyArcIvyArc
6

Smoke Them Out

4yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 76

Naas · Matchbook Betting Exchange Handicap · 5f 205y

#10

Rank

Odds

11/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

All 3 career victories over 6f, the latest at the Curragh in March. Form has been mixed since, leaving behind a lesser effort when staying on for third in 5-runner contest at Bellewstown (5f) a month ago. Needs to back that up.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 5.8)

Highest class: BHA67
Recent avg: C7.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA67 @ Curragh 04/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 15 · OR 67 · 6f Sft 136 · beat its mark04/10/2025 · OR 67 par4/1067OR 67BHA75 @ Curragh 21/10/2025 · Pos 8th of 17 · OR 75 · 6f Hvy 135 · below its mark21/10/2025 · OR 75 parBHA75 @ Curragh 02/11/2025 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 75 · 5f Hvy 126 · below its mark02/11/2025 · OR 75 par2/1175OR 75BHA75 @ Curragh 15/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 75 · 6f Hvy 138 · beat its mark15/03/2026 · OR 75 parBHA79 @ Curragh 28/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 79 · 5f Sft 119 · below its mark28/03/2026 · OR 79 par28/0379OR 79BHA78 @ Curragh 19/04/2026 · Pos 11th of 17 · OR 78 · 7f Sft 138 · below its mark19/04/2026 · OR 78 parBHA77 @ Cork 19/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 77 · 7f Sft 127 · below its mark19/05/2026 · OR 77 par19/0577OR 77BHA76 @ Curragh 26/06/2026 · Pos 15th of 17 · OR 76 · 7f Gd 126 · below its mark26/06/2026 · OR 76 parBHA76 @ Bellewstown 02/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 76 · 5f3y Gd 129 · below its mark02/07/2026 · OR 76 par2/0776OR 76projClass-projected finish: 9th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-02BellewstownBHA763rd3rd0
2026-06-26CurraghBHA7615th15th0
2026-05-19CorkBHA772nd2nd0
2026-04-19CurraghBHA7811th11th0
2026-03-28CurraghBHA796th6th0
2026-03-15CurraghBHA751st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/1015/0319/052/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 11
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength61%

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 9th of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/10/20251st7/163%100%+0.37
21/10/20258th4/179%56%-0.23
02/11/20256th7/163%62%-0.02
15/03/20261st8/158%100%+0.42
28/03/20266th13/266%62%-0.04
19/04/202611th16/116%38%+0.22
19/05/20262nd6/168%86%+0.17
26/06/202615th14/126%13%-0.14
02/07/20263rd11/271%50%-0.21