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5

Hot To Foxtrot

6yo Mare · 9-9 · OR 53

Naas · Matchbook Supporting Local Racing Apprentice Handicap (0-60) · 5f

#4

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#4

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Has made the frame 3 times this season, soon leaving behind a lesser effort dropped back to 5f when never-nearer third of 11 at Down Royal 17 days ago (½ length behind Dandy Land). Could be ready to open her account.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength22%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 5.9)

Highest class: BHA52
Recent avg: C5.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Down Royal 05/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR - · 5f Gd 1305/09C8BHA64 @ Down Royal 29/09/2025 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR 64 · 7f26y Yie 134 · below its mark29/09/2025 · OR 64 parBHA62 @ Curragh 16/10/2025 · Pos 11th of 16 · OR 62 · 5f Yie 132 · below its mark16/10/2025 · OR 62 par16/1062OR 62BHA61 @ Dundalk 03/12/2025 · Pos 13th of 14 · OR 61 · 7f Std 131 · below its mark03/12/2025 · OR 61 parBHA57 @ Dundalk 27/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 57 · 7f Std 139 · beat its mark27/03/2026 · OR 57 par27/0357OR 57BHA57 @ Dundalk 10/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 57 · 6f Std 141 · beat its mark10/04/2026 · OR 57 parBHA53 @ Curragh 03/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 20 · OR 53 · 6f63y Yie 123 · beat its mark03/06/2026 · OR 53 par3/0653OR 53BHA54 @ Down Royal 19/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 54 · 7f Sft 136 · beat its mark19/06/2026 · OR 54 parBHA52 @ Down Royal 17/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 52 · 5f Goo 134 · beat its mark17/07/2026 · OR 52 par17/0752OR 52projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 15
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-17Down RoyalBHA523rd3rd0
2026-06-19Down RoyalBHA546th6th0
2026-06-03CurraghBHA533rd3rd0
2026-04-10DundalkBHA574th4th0
2026-03-27DundalkBHA575th5th0
2025-12-03DundalkBHA6113th13th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today5/093/123/0617/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 15
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength84%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 15. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
05/09/20253rd22/10%78%+0.78
29/09/20259th10/147%33%-0.14
16/10/202511th12/137%33%-0.04
03/12/202513th40/10%8%+0.08
27/03/20265th22/10%69%+0.69
10/04/20264th4/179%63%-0.16
03/06/20263rd22/10%89%+0.89
19/06/20266th5/174%50%-0.24
17/07/20263rd9/276%80%+0.04