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15

Livingston Range

8yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 40

Naas · Matchbook Supporting Local Racing Apprentice Handicap (0-60) · 5f

#9

Rank

Odds

9/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Losing run is mounting up but has been in decent nick this season, quickly refitted with tongue strap when fifth of 17 in handicap at Fairyhouse (6f) last month. Still looks vulnerable for win purposes, though.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 9.0 /10 (raw 8.3)

Highest class: BHA40
Recent avg: C4.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA40 @ Fairyhouse 29/05/2025 · Pos 2nd of 18 · OR 40 · 6f25y Goo 122 · beat its mark29/05/2025 · OR 40 par29/0540OR 40BHA42 @ Fairyhouse 06/06/2025 · Pos 8th of 18 · OR 42 · 6f Gd 124 · beat its mark06/06/2025 · OR 42 parBHA42 @ Down Royal 18/07/2025 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 42 · 5f Goo 128 · beat its mark18/07/2025 · OR 42 par18/0742OR 42BHA41 @ Naas 24/08/2025 · Pos 17th of 21 · OR 41 · 5f Gd 124 · beat its mark24/08/2025 · OR 41 parBHA40 @ Bellewstown 02/10/2025 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR 40 · 5f3y Sft 124 · beat its mark02/10/2025 · OR 40 par2/1040OR 40BHA40 @ Navan 16/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 17 · OR 40 · 5f180y Yie 123 · beat its mark16/05/2026 · OR 40 parBHA40 @ Fairyhouse 12/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 15 · OR 40 · 6f Goo 122 · beat its mark12/06/2026 · OR 40 par12/0640OR 40BHA40 @ Naas 24/06/2026 · Pos 14th of 21 · OR 40 · 5f Gd 122 · beat its mark24/06/2026 · OR 40 parBHA40 @ Fairyhouse 01/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 17 · OR 40 · 6f Goo 122 · beat its mark01/07/2026 · OR 40 par1/0740OR 40projClass-projected finish: 7th of 15
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-01FairyhouseBHA405th5th0
2026-06-24NaasBHA4014th14th0
2026-06-12FairyhouseBHA404th4th0
2026-05-16NavanBHA404th4th0
2025-10-02BellewstownBHA4010th10th0
2025-08-24NaasBHA4117th17th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today29/0524/0812/061/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 15
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength71%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 15. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
29/05/20252nd12/137%94%+0.57
06/06/20258th11/271%59%-0.12
18/07/20259th5/174%27%-0.46
24/08/202517th8/158%20%-0.38
02/10/202510th11/142%18%-0.24
16/05/20264th25/10%81%+0.81
12/06/20264th8/158%79%+0.21
24/06/202614th12/137%35%-0.02
01/07/20265th9/153%75%+0.22