IvyArcIvyArc
2

Tawaazon

8yo Gelding · 10-0 · OR 58

Naas · Matchbook Supporting Local Racing Apprentice Handicap (0-60) · 5f

#2

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

8%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Successful over 6f here last spring and best effort this season when runner-up over C&D in June. Hasn't quite been in the same form last 3 starts, mid-field at the Curragh 16 days ago, but he's on a handy mark back down in grade.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 5.6)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA66 @ Curragh 04/06/2025 · Pos 3rd of 23 · OR 66 · 6f63y Gd 136 · beat its mark04/06/2025 · OR 66 par4/0666OR 66BHA68 @ Curragh 28/06/2025 · Pos 8th of 13 · OR 68 · 6f Gd 121 · below its mark28/06/2025 · OR 68 parBHA67 @ Cork 25/07/2025 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR 67 · 5f Goo 119 · below its mark25/07/2025 · OR 67 par25/0767OR 67C7 @ Fairyhouse 28/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 64 · 6f25y Gd 142 · below its mark28/05/2026 · OR 64 parBHA62 @ Leopardstown 11/06/2026 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR 62 · 7f35y Sft 132 · below its mark11/06/2026 · OR 62 par11/0662OR 62BHA58 @ Naas 24/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 21 · OR 58 · 5f Gd 140 · beat its mark24/06/2026 · OR 58 parBHA60 @ Fairyhouse 01/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 17 · OR 60 · 6f Goo 142 · beat its mark01/07/2026 · OR 60 par1/0760OR 60BHA60 @ Naas 04/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 60 · 5f Goo 130 · beat its mark04/07/2026 · OR 60 parBHA60 @ Curragh 18/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 18 · OR 60 · 5f Goo 120 · beat its mark18/07/2026 · OR 60 par18/0760OR 60projClass-projected finish: 8th of 15
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-18CurraghBHA609th9th0
2026-07-04NaasBHA605th5th0
2026-07-01FairyhouseBHA609th9th0
2026-06-24NaasBHA582nd2nd0
2026-06-11LeopardstownBHA6212th12th0
2026-05-28Fairyhouse?4th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/0628/051/0718/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 15
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength56%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 15.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/06/20253rd6/168%91%+0.22
28/06/20258th10/147%42%-0.06
25/07/202512th50/10%0%0.00
28/05/20264th14/126%50%+0.24
11/06/202612th66/10%0%0.00
24/06/20262nd28/10%95%+0.95
01/07/20269th12/137%50%+0.13
04/07/20265th7/282%64%-0.18
18/07/20269th12/137%53%+0.16